CEA_20

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About CEA_20

  • Birthday 06/20/1983

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    Male
  • Location
    Edinburgh
  • Interests
    Football
  • Occupation
    Business Analyst

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  1. Welcome to another version of the Modern Fitba newsletter! With international week here (again), there will be no match previews this week, but we will give you a close look at the current Expected Goal numbers for the league as a whole. Before we do, you should also check out Jamie Kilday’s article on Lawrence Shankland and whether the stats of the newest member of the Scotland team lives up to the current hype around him. Expecting You Eight games are a decent sample for looking at xG and trying to predict patterns for the rest of the season, but there is still likely to be a large degree of statistical noise to shift through before you can try to make any sort of conclusions. In terms of comparing teams within a league the main cause of such noise after 8 games is likely to be the fixture list. A team’s xG might not look impressive right now, but if they have an overload of tough opponents at the start of the season we could reasonably expect them to improve. For every week of games played we’ll gain more information and especially after the next three rounds: when all teams have faced each other once we can slowly start drawing out such likely future patterns with more certainty. At this stage, it’ll be beneficial to look at the xG numbers in three different ways. The first is the overall xG Table This table shows the difference between the quality of chances a team has created (xG for) and the quality of chances they have conceded (xG against). This looks beyond the results of each game and indicates the quality of the actual performances, through what they actually created and prevented at each end of the pitch. Rangers have opened up a gap in the table down to Celtic and is now 4.8 xG in front of them: a sizable gap. There is of course some differences in the two top clubs’ fixture list so far, with Celtic having played five away games to Rangers’ three and the champions also having to go to Ibrox and Fir Park – the home of the two other teams in the top 3 of the xG standings. After round 6 the gap between the two team was only 0.1, with Rangers creating this current gap through big hammerings of Aberdeen and Hamilton at home, as Celtic struggled away to Hibs and Livingston. So do such single-game blowouts (Ranger’s 4.54 xG game difference over Dons is the largest we’ve ever recorded) skew the table somewhat? As a sense-check of this – especially at this early stage of the season – it can be useful to allocate the points in each game based on the xG difference. In the table below, the match results have been determined by xG, with a difference of less than 0.5 xG resulting in a draw (excludes penalties). Rangers’ 2-point league lead is still intact; a sign that both they and Celtic have pretty much got the results they’ve 'deserved’ based on their performances so far. It’ll be interesting to see the overall picture once the next three games have been played and all Premiership teams have faced each other. One team that have suffered in the xG table due to some heavy defeats is Hibs. Overall they have the second worst xG difference in the league at -4.9, but if game points were allocated purely based on xG, they would be 6th: Paul Heckingbottom’s team have had some heavy xG defeats by Rangers, Celtic and Motherwell, while in other games they’ve been equal or just better than their opponent xG wise – but they’ve not managed to transform that into points on the board to a sufficient degree. At the bottom of the league table we find St. Johnstone. And it’s quite difficult to understand why. Their overall xG difference is 5th and if they were allocated points based on individual game xG performances, they would be 3rd! Which leads us on to our final xG angle: the over/under performing table. This ranks the teams based on the largest difference between their actual goals difference and their expected goals difference. St. Johnstone have by far the largest negative difference, i.e. their goal difference (excluding pens and own goals) is over 12 goals worse than it ‘should be’, based on the quality of the chances they’ve created and conceded. There is a huge gap down to Hibs, who has a negative difference of just over 5. It’s also interesting to note that while being 4th in the league - only 1 point above 7th and 11 behind 1st - is probably not the start Aberdeen would have ideally wanted, they should consider themselves fairly lucky: Modern Fitba have them as the third worst team in the league xG wise, and they are only one spot better off with points allocated per xG. The xG table after 8 games is a snapshot: a better indicator of the true relationship between the team than the actual results and goasl, but not yet comprehensive enough to predict too much with certainty about the rest of the season. The Modern Fitba team have worked on and developed different kind of predictive models for the Premiership season. We’ll be talking more about these as the season progresses, but for now you can have a look at Jason’s Projected League Table and Seth’s Project Points and Team Ratings We’ll be back next week with a full preview of every single Premiership game!
  2. When signing up you can buy the international version as a 'gift' which will allow you to see the live 3pm games (using a VPN). This will mean that they won't connect where the stream appears to be being accessed from to the billing address that was used.
  3. Called up and renewed a couple over the phone. Only took a few mins and no hassle.
  4. Many fans only stand because it's the only way to see due to others standing so saying there isn't a problem is pretty naive. When others stand others are forced to stand against their preference which can cause problems. I prefer sitting myself and would imagine a lot of our support are the same. Saying 'most' English Premiership fans stand is pretty inaccurate from my experience. There are sections that do stand, and a lot of away supports do, but it's highly unlikely to even be the majority never mind 'most'. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/sep/04/take-stand-sitting-football-matches
  5. We have to charge the same for home and away fans for adults. So to get the most money from Celtic we have to charge home fans an increased price. The ticket prices for kids doesn't have to be the same for home and away fans so what Dundee United do isn't against the rules. We'd be best to encourage Saints fans to the other games and take advantage of the large travelling support Celtic have. Even if most will be travelling from Perth anyway. It's the other games that give a better example of what it's like week in week out.
  6. CEA_20

    Thursday 9Th

    Are you the only one that has had trouble getting through to the office? I've called for every all ticket game for years and 99% of the time I get through 1st time and the tickets arrive the next day. Surely just trying a few more times is quicker than driving from Glasgow to Perth?
  7. For those stuck at work you can watch on phones using their App on Android / Apple. https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=am.tv1 – Google Play https://itunes.apple.com/US/app/id989715996?mt=8 - Apple http://www.1tv.am/en/live/ - Computer To change the App to English click the top left, 3rd line down, then the top box, click English and Save.
  8. CEA_20

    Season Tickets

    Bought mine and my brothers today. Any update on numbers?
  9. St Johnstone boss Tommy Wright wants to sign former Dundee United striker David Goodwillie - but admits his move will come down to cash. The three-time Scotland cap is training with the William Hill Scottish Cup winners after being released by Blackburn. But Wright is still unsure if he will be able to match the 25-year-old's wage demands while he waits for Perth chief Steven Brown to confirm his budget. The Northern Irishman - who wants to bring in three new players - told various newspapers: "David has joined us for some training. "The club are not in a position to make him an offer now, but training here will help David out and it gives us an opportunity to get into a position to make an offer. "It's a chance for David to do a pre-season and get a feel for the place. We can use the time David is here to sell St Johnstone to him. "David could get a phone call and be away, but hopefully he will be here long enough for us to get something together. "At the minute, I can't make any offers. The bottom line is we have 20 players and until I get funds we can't do anything."
  10. http://www.carling.com/winwinwin/scottish-cup-quiz/ 1. In which year did St Johnstone reach the Scottish Cup semi-finals for the first time? 1931 1932 1933 1934 2. Which player scored Saints first Scottish Cup goal this season, in the 4th Round 2 0 win over Livingston? Steven MacLean Gary McDonald Stevie May Sanel Jahic 3. Saints record attendance at Muirton Park was for a Scottish Cup tie with Dundee in 1951. What was that attendance? 10,545 20,123 29,972 35,678 4. How many Scottish Cup appearances did Alan Main make for St Johnstone? 22 23 24 25 5. Who were Saints opponents when they recorded their highest victory in the Scottish Cup, winning 6 0 in 1993? Arbroath Brechin City Dundee Forfar Athletic 6. How many Scottish Cup goals did John Brogan score for Saints? 5 6 7 8 7. Who was the St Johnstone Manager when they reached the semi-final stage of the 1968 Scottish Cup? Bobby Brown Willie Ormond Jackie Stewart Jim Storrie 8. In the 2008 Scottish Cup semi-final who scored Saints goal in the 1 - 1 draw with Rangers? Paul Sheerin Peter MacDonald Daniel McBreen Goran Stanic 9.What was the score in St Johnstones record Scottish Cup defeat to Third Lanark in 1903? 1 - 7 1 - 8 1 - 9 1 - 10 10. Of the present squad which St Johnstone player has made the most Scottish Cup appearances for the club? Steven Anderson David Mackay Frazer Wright Stevie May
  11. I know a few people have mentioned in the match thread a few places to park but a lot of pages to scroll through... So where is best to park? Cheers
  12. - Can use https://hola.org/ to view early
  13. ST JOHNSTONE manager Tommy Wright hailed dream boy David Wotherspoon for his match winning assist as he pulled OUT of the race for David Goodwillie. Wotherspoon’s superb run set up Stevie May for the only goal as Partick Thistle’s winless Premiership streak drags on. It was May’s 20th goal of the season and the onus on him to keep scoring will only increase after Wright revealed Blackburn Rovers’ demands for Goodwillie put him out of reach. He said: “The players showed great character, especially after a difficult game on Saturday. “To come here and start so well is pleasing. We have managed that in the last three games. “We dominated early on and created a few chances and when we scored we more than deserved to be 1-0 ahead. “It was after we scored our goal we started to make wrong decisions. We started to give the ball away far too cheaply and gave Partick far too much possession. They are a good side with good players, but other than a few shots from distance, I don’t think Stevie Banks had too much to do. “The second half was pretty even, although Thistle did come at us. “We had to make a few blocks and they put a few balls across our box. But overall it was a good defensive display and we showed a lot of quality, especially in the first half. “David Wotherspoon has been a dream for us this season as he can play in so many positions. “I’m really pleased with him and it was a great assist for Stevie, who tucked it away nicely.” Thistle manager Alan Archibald lambasted his players for a poor first half which once again left them playing catch up on home soil. He groaned: “We were miles off it in the first half. We showed them far too much respect. “St Johnstone were by far the better team and won every second ball. ‘We had more of it in the second half, but we couldn’t score.”