What will you do if new Rangers are allowed straight into SPL?  

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OK there are 268,435,456 possible outcomes from 28 cup draws.

if were going down the maths route, lets wait until weve had 268,435,456  cup draws before drawing any conclusions!

if we;re going down the conspiracy theory route, it looks well dodgy.

if we're going down the sfa route - we know its all dodgy

 

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Statistically speaking, there is nothing at all unusual about one team getting 20 out of 28 home draws. The classic probability curve is bell-shaped, with the ones forming the rim at either end called outliers. What would be really, really weird is if there wasn't a team that got 20 out of 28 (or so) given the number involved. There is almost certainly a team that got 20 out of 28 away draws (or so). The idea that this in itself is damning is in fact quite the opposite of the truth - an absence of outliers would be far more convincing evidence of manipulation.

However, if we were all asked to guess in advance what team might get 20 out of 28 home draws, I reckon 90% of us would have guessed Sevco right away. A conspiracy theory is born. At the heart of it is the notion that the football authorities, for various reasons including financial, loyalty, sectarianism etc, wanted Sevco back at the top, and sought to support them in that, primarily through dodgy financial support. So what do home draws actually get you?

It isn't rocket science. More games at home statistically, over time, produce more cup wins, which leads to more cash including the bonanza of semis and finals. Especially in the years when they are played on your own ground, another odd decision.

Perhaps more significantly, although cup gate takings are evenly split after costs, the takings are of course exponentially greater at Ibrox than at Brechin, or even the likes of Hearts.

The conspiracy theory also asserts that the aim is to get the Twisted Sisters together in the final. The number of times this has happened in the past seems to support this. Ah but, you say, Rangers and Celtic were drawn together in just the quarters and semi in the last few years. That can be countered by pointing to the fact that Sevco were pretty shit, and could not be relied upon to get further, as games against eg Saints and the Arabs showed.

Finally, say the conspiracy theorists, what is the record of the governing bodies  on this sort of thing in the past? Don't think we need to waste much time on that one!

in conclusion, you have the makings of a fairly healthy conspiracy theory, but not one that you should base on statistical probability - as I say, one team getting 20 out of 28 home draws is evidence not of manipulation, but a lack of manipulation.

Is it true? Well it stinks, and the bosses certainly have the opprtunity and the motivation. The problem comes with the means, not so much how is it done - it would require the simplest of techniques such as balls heated or roughened up - but how you would maintain the conspiracy of silence. A fair few number would have to be in the know, many of them not of the twisted fraternities. How likely is it that none of them have ever spoken out!

My own best guess is that it is just one of those things, and that if anyone could be arsed, they could find all sorts of apparent statistical oddities over the years, some heavily favouring or discriminating against certain clubs. 

Please carry on though - it's Braw fun! 

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This is the classic, bell shaped probability curve, this one on the distribution of IQ scores in the population. Sevco are on that tiny flat bit at the end. Given enough people or teams or whatever to start with, it would be hugely more odd not to have the tiny flat bit than to have it. To illustrate this yourself, throw a box of matches randomly up in the air, and when they land, there will always be a few that inexplicably land on their own further out from the pile in the middle.

Dont miss tomorrow's lecture on the sex organs of giraffes.

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Retired, mate. Still in bed, recovering from another Olympic all nighter. Braw! 

Its murder sitting in the sun getting burnt & unable to read the screen on my tablet.

 

Wish I was back working,contributing to society rather than being a drain.

 

 

NOT.

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I'm a Whyte and Mackay man myself.

Actually that's a lie. I'm a whatever shite whisky is on special at Tesco's this week man. Including, occasionally, Bells.

Just finished reading your two posts above (well TBH I've just finished looking up the big words) and have concluded that they are in fact brilliant.  Seriously, I am impressed.

PS  I was helped in reaching that conclusion by one or two drops of Famous Grouse Smoky Black which Tesco often have on offer at £15 a throw.

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Your very kind.

Statistics - or perhaps more accurately statistical trends - (which is the science behind marketing, betting, investing and a heap of other stuff) is incredibly powerful. It can also be quite interesting. Sadly, to really get into it, there is a mountain of mind-bogglingly complex maths to get your head round. I had to do it up to 1st degree level for a masters. It was 90% boring shite about how you got the numbers, and then 10% jaw dropping amazement at the power of them. 

Perhaps the most powerful, or at least profitable, set of stats held in this country, believe it or not, is Tesco club card, for the simple reason that, armed with your name, address and shopping habits, there is very little else Tesco need to know pretty much everything else about tens of millions of people, within certain limits. It is reckoned that, at some point in the future, that data will be worth a huge percentage of Tesco's total worth. They are already talking about selling it off.

 

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Interesting stuff.  The former England Cricket Captain, Nasser Hussain, once lost thirteen consecutive tosses.  I don't know how many of the tosses were on his call or whether he always made the same guess when it was his call but the odds against that must have been pretty long.  Had the opposition been you know who you can imagine what the conspiracy theorists would have made of it.

I assume if Tesco do sell their club card information it will not be to Asda or Morrisons so no chance of an offer of Smoky Black at £12 a bottle falling through my letterbox! 

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Just finished reading your two posts above (well TBH I've just finished looking up the big words) and have concluded that they are in fact brilliant.  Seriously, I am impressed.

PS  I was helped in reaching that conclusion by one or two drops of Famous Grouse Smoky Black which Tesco often have on offer at £15 a throw.

South Inch can you still get Black grouse up the road, used to get it down here but cant get it for love or money, not keen on the smoky grouse

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South Inch can you still get Black grouse up the road, used to get it down here but cant get it for love or money, not keen on the smoky grouse

Last time I looked (Saturday) you could though not on offer.  They are also pushing a Mellow Grouse variation which I have yet to taste.  I like the peat taste in the Smoky since I can no longer afford Lagavullin!

Best wishes.

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Your very kind.

Statistics - or perhaps more accurately statistical trends - (which is the science behind marketing, betting, investing and a heap of other stuff) is incredibly powerful. It can also be quite interesting. Sadly, to really get into it, there is a mountain of mind-bogglingly complex maths to get your head round. I had to do it up to 1st degree level for a masters. It was 90% boring shite about how you got the numbers, and then 10% jaw dropping amazement at the power of them. 

Perhaps the most powerful, or at least profitable, set of stats held in this country, believe it or not, is Tesco club card, for the simple reason that, armed with your name, address and shopping habits, there is very little else Tesco need to know pretty much everything else about tens of millions of people, within certain limits. It is reckoned that, at some point in the future, that data will be worth a huge percentage of Tesco's total worth. They are already talking about selling it off.

 

i feel your pain abernethy, as a one time economics undergrad.

the old anecdote used to be about tesco knowing someone was pregnant, before the father, based purely on buying habits.

Add in the meta data thats freely thrown around on social media, its no surprise multinationals could base their value on data rather than sales.

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There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

Best to leave this stuff to Boris, Liam, Theresa, Jeremy, Owen, Ruth, Kezia, Eck, Donald and our Leaderene.

Mind you, anything to unsettle Mordor is fine by me!

 

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