Rise of the Tories...........

[Smarmy Arab]

 

Shit, guys, the SNP have implemented progressive measures. What do we do?

i know, let's just re-define "progressive" to exclude everything they've done.

WINNER!

Well AS, again your not far wrong, many of these policies are Blairite in character, much like the SNP's operational strategy, which is profoundly Blairite, what boils my pysh is supporters of the SNP making out they are the carriers of the progressive torch, whilst Labour have abandoned 'their people' under Blair.  If there were any truth in that they would have joined Corbyn and his ideological stance.  In reality the SNP have (as Blair did) courted the new middle class with many junkets in order to get elected, they may well have had to....but don't tell me its some sort of anti establishment leftism.  The problem they now face is the new middle class are easy to please if you save them thousands in Council Tax and Tuition Fees, bothersome Bridge Tolls, a prescription charge here, a Baby Box there....even shave a £100 reduction on their ATD.  Now the bills are coming in and services have failed to meed need due to this universalist approach which is expensive and poorly targeted in terms of those who need help most.  The rational self interest that always drives the middle class will not vote for independence until it is in their material interest to do so.  This remains the road block faced by the SNP.....the Growth Commission has completed its work....why have they not published....I think I know

[Abernethy Saint]

As far as I was aware, the commission is still working, but clearly you have better sources in Scottish government. I just worked for them..... 

Labour are in a horrible position from which there is no coming back, and I won't write screeds because everyone can see what is happening, Appeal to the left, and they are unelectable. Appeal to the centre, and they are theoretically electable, but only by being better Tories than the Tories. Which, since Blair, they have failed at.

At least UK labour are giving the leftist approach a go. Scottish labour are still focusing on being better Tories and better British nationalists than the Tories. Both approaches, as we are seeing, are doomed. Willie Rennie meanwhile wrestles sheep - bless.

Btw, we shouldn't all forget the Greens, who offer a slightly different left of centre approach than the SNP against the Blue and Red Tories. They got nearly 5% in the locals, and this should be added to the SNP "score" when estimating support for self-determination.

The latest Tory attack line up here is brilliant. There is too much immigration because.....reasons. Simultaneously, there is too little immigration because Scotland is shite because of the SNP.

[Abernethy Saint]

Blimey. That pushed a button. If you and the Labour Party were one tenth as rude about the Tories as you are about Scotland's centre left parties, mebbee the odd person might vote for you.

I had the pleasure of meeting Patrick, he's so not ego driven that it's difficult to believe he is a politician.

You know who you remind me of, to the point that you might be his brother/lover/lodger? Duncan Hothersall, the darling of the Red Tories on Twitter, and equally bafflingly deluded about labour as you are. You're not, are you....

[Smarmy Arab]

I too have met St Patrick more than once, a very pleasant individual at face value, the way he allowed the SNP to spin an austerity budget was unforgivable.  I have big problem with the political opportunism of RIC, probably because I was a comrade and fellow traveller for many years and know the contradictions and egos lurking within the veneer of radicalism, fat salaries, property portfolios and 3 litre SUVs, telling me I've abandoned the 'working class' for not rushing to the nationalist banner? ....gobsh*tes!  How can the SNP and Greens claim to be on the left?  They don't even hate each other!  

 

I can be rude about the Tories if you like......

Edited May 9, 2017 by Smarmy Arab

[Smarmy Arab]

Never heard of Duncan Hothersall..I'll google him...

 

[Abernethy Saint]

He was Ian Murray's election agent, so had some claim to credibility, but talks utter bollocks. He sounds so like you it's uncanny - bit like Saddams Minister at the tail end of your illegal Iraq war, who said there were no American tanks in Baghdad, as a long convoy of American tanks drove sedately by behind him.

Go on then, be rude about the Tories. In a sane world, we would be fighting against them in coalition, but Labour would rather die than give up all those ermine robes and expense accounts that come with voting for the Tories.....

[Gussie]

 

The UK government has confirmed on numerous occasions that it accepts its on-going liability for occupational/state pensioners who have left the UK. Why on earth would it do otherwise? How could it do otherwise! Why is it paying CS/state pensions to immigrants from the UK all over the world, but would suddenly stop if one of those CS pensioners re-located from Majorca to Dundee?

I mentioned it as it was Beaky who reversed the 5 year Parliament; said not that long ago that she wasnt holding an election. The woman changes her mind more than her knickers. Triple lock being reviewed. Once she gets in next month with her monster majority...what are a few expat votes?

Still not convinced? Look at the raging foaming at the mouth when the EU mention UK liabilities that are to be paid following Brexit. "Counsel" (fat cat lawyers) say that it wont be enforceable.

Personally, I think that the SNP havent convinced the majority and won't now that Beaky's mob are showing up in Scotland again. Remember in 1952, Scotland was solidly Tory..Perthshire used to vote well in this area and thats before English settlers arrived. 

Anyway, thats my contribution...a Bientot!

[Smarmy Arab]

The state pension for Scotland's pensioners will fall to the Scottish government, the state pensions to rUK will fall to the rUK government, this will be negotiated on a population share basis, those already living in EU for example would form a different category and the Scottish Govt and rUK govt would share that too, subject to negotiation and most likely on population share again.  The Yes movement lied about this.........and at the same time accused the other side of lying. The DWP have NEVER stated that they will pay anyone's pension following relocation to a foreign land.....this is indeed entirely at the discretion of the UK govt.  There is no way on earth the rUK government will continue to pay pensions to newly independent state.  What kind of 'independence' requires foreign power to pick up the pension tab?...the same one that wants to use a 'foreign' bank as LOLR, or use a 'foreign' currency....or a 'foreign' defence ....a kind of teenagers' independence......I suppose.

[HOODLUM65]

Don't normally get involved in these political discussions, but will make an exception just this once.

What I have heard is that the only Tory that's any good is a Suppository.

[Abernethy Saint]

 

The state pension for Scotland's pensioners will fall to the Scottish government, the state pensions to rUK will fall to the rUK government, this will be negotiated on a population share basis, those already living in EU for example would form a different category and the Scottish Govt and rUK govt would share that too, subject to negotiation and most likely on population share again.  The Yes movement lied about this.........and at the same time accused the other side of lying. The DWP have NEVER stated that they will pay anyone's pension following relocation to a foreign land.....this is indeed entirely at the discretion of the UK govt.  There is no way on earth the rUK government will continue to pay pensions to newly independent state.  What kind of 'independence' requires foreign power to pick up the pension tab?...the same one that wants to use a 'foreign' bank as LOLR, or use a 'foreign' currency....or a 'foreign' defence ....a kind of teenagers' independence......I suppose.

This is absolute nonsense, and has been put to bed many times. It is a flat-out lie, and was not supported in any official No propaganda, because it is not true. Numerous people have written to the DWP asking them to confirm they retain liability up until Independence Day. Numerous replies from the DWP confirming this is correct are in the public domain - the last one I saw was just a couple of weeks ago. The liability lies with the UK government - unless they propose to pay billions in compensation to the folk who paid decades of NI counts from Scotland.  Once again - no one ever answers this - why would the UK government pay a state pension to an immigrant from the U.K. living in Majorca, but would immediately cease paying it if that person relocated to Dundee? Incidentally, the Vienna Convention, which the UK has signed, explicitly protects newly independent  states from this sort of banditry.

Obviously the new state would be liable for any pension entitlement from then on, plus increases in old pensions.

 

[Smarmy Arab]

 

This is absolute nonsense, and has been put to bed many times. It is a flat-out lie, and was not supported in any official No propaganda, because it is not true. Numerous people have written to the DWP asking them to confirm they retain liability up until Independence Day. Numerous replies from the DWP confirming this is correct are in the public domain - the last one I saw was just a couple of weeks ago. The liability lies with the UK government - unless they propose to pay billions in compensation to the folk who paid decades of NI counts from Scotland.  Once again - no one ever answers this - why would the UK government pay a state pension to an immigrant from the U.K. living in Majorca, but would immediately cease paying it if that person relocated to Dundee? Incidentally, the Vienna Convention, which the UK has signed, explicitly protects newly independent  states from this sort of banditry.

Obviously the new state would be liable for any pension entitlement from then on, plus increases in old pensions.

 

 

 

Ok AS, lets walk our way through this.  First up, state pensions are by far the largest slice of the so called 'Welfare' cake.

At the moment all UK workers pay into a central fund via National Insurance circa 92% England, Wales, NI, circa 8% in Scotland. 

When pensions were set up, there was no waiting a generation, the pensions were paid immediately ergo, pensions are paid out of current workers NI contributions.  

If an IScotland set up its own DWP which it will need to, it will be great, cos....IScotland's pensioners will still be paid by rUK...and Scotland can just stack the cash for a rainy day.........this is what you are suggesting Yes? Really?

What you are overlooking is that rUK will also reconfigure its pension provision and my guess is this new dept will notice that there are no NI contributions coming in from the newly created IScotland....ergo they will not be paying any pensions back across the border.  Why would they do anything else?

This will be subject to negotiations, there will be anomalies, residents of UK who have relocated to Majorca or Australia etc, these will be tricky, but the idea of the newly created rUK DWP will simply continue to pay pensions into an iScotland is somewhat optimistic.  Much like asset division this will not be straight forward.....in theory Scotland owns 10% of the London Underground.....but then rUK owns 90% of the Forth Rail Bridge???? batshittery!    Like pensions, sooner or later it will be a population share based on geography and residency.  I would like to think in such negotiations both sides would be reasonable.....but I would not bank on it, the economy with the largest asset and contribution base will have the cards in the game........ post Brexit, you may well find the UK in an unforgiving mood at the upheaval caused by a Scottish Government who have spent a decade and more aggressively demanding more and more with no little snark and invective towards the UK state....... a f*ck off then attitude may well prevail...especially as the demographic trend for Scotland is a faster ageing population.

...or maybe this is would be so damned complex and expensive, lets just have an Act of Union where we pool and share such basic things....with the rest of the people whom we share these islands with.  

I can only presume the letters of which you speak are individuals requesting clarification for an individual transaction and relocation and I readily concede the DWP tend to accommodate although I repeat it is legally at their discretion.  If the Indy movement cannot come up with a better explanation....this will remain along with deficit, and currency the soft underbelly of their argument.....and utterly doomed to failure.

[babychunder]

NI Contribution record gates entitlement to benefits such as pensions. However the money collected is not hypothecated. It is over 20% of HMG's revenue and still it's less than the cost of the various benefit schemes.

[Abernethy Saint]

 

 

 

Ok AS, lets walk our way through this.  First up, state pensions are by far the largest slice of the so called 'Welfare' cake.

At the moment all UK workers pay into a central fund via National Insurance circa 92% England, Wales, NI, circa 8% in Scotland. 

When pensions were set up, there was no waiting a generation, the pensions were paid immediately ergo, pensions are paid out of current workers NI contributions.  

If an IScotland set up its own DWP which it will need to, it will be great, cos....IScotland's pensioners will still be paid by rUK...and Scotland can just stack the cash for a rainy day.........this is what you are suggesting Yes? Really?

What you are overlooking is that rUK will also reconfigure its pension provision and my guess is this new dept will notice that there are no NI contributions coming in from the newly created IScotland....ergo they will not be paying any pensions back across the border.  Why would they do anything else?

This will be subject to negotiations, there will be anomalies, residents of UK who have relocated to Majorca or Australia etc, these will be tricky, but the idea of the newly created rUK DWP will simply continue to pay pensions into an iScotland is somewhat optimistic.  Much like asset division this will not be straight forward.....in theory Scotland owns 10% of the London Underground.....but then rUK owns 90% of the Forth Rail Bridge???? batshittery!    Like pensions, sooner or later it will be a population share based on geography and residency.  I would like to think in such negotiations both sides would be reasonable.....but I would not bank on it, the economy with the largest asset and contribution base will have the cards in the game........ post Brexit, you may well find the UK in an unforgiving mood at the upheaval caused by a Scottish Government who have spent a decade and more aggressively demanding more and more with no little snark and invective towards the UK state....... a f*ck off then attitude may well prevail...especially as the demographic trend for Scotland is a faster ageing population.

...or maybe this is would be so damned complex and expensive, lets just have an Act of Union where we pool and share such basic things....with the rest of the people whom we share these islands with.  

I can only presume the letters of which you speak are individuals requesting clarification for an individual transaction and relocation and I readily concede the DWP tend to accommodate although I repeat it is legally at their discretion.  If the Indy movement cannot come up with a better explanation....this will remain along with deficit, and currency the soft underbelly of their argument.....and utterly doomed to failure.

The DWP have repeatedly confirmed, in writing, that they retain liability for U.K. State pensions accrued through contributions paid to them. Every day, they pay millions of pounds in pensions to immigrants from the UK. This expenditure is already budgeted for, and no additional expense accrues. The liability will decrease over time. This is exactly how the UK has dealt with de-colonialisation for a century, and nothing has changed. This is not an issue. Stop fibbing. 

[Smarmy Arab]

I am struggling to see anything remotely controversial in my explanation, but as usual Yessers squeal 'liar' fibs' etc.  If you will not take my word for it look at the 'Pensions in an Independent Scotland' (Scottish Government 2013) where it clearly states;

Under section 141

'For those living in an independent Scotland in receipt of a UK pension at the time of independence, the responsibility for payment of that pension would transfer to the Scottish Government.'

If you work for the Scottish Government take it up with your employers AS!

The question is why are advocates of 'independence' smarting at the suggestion that an iScotland would need to meet obligations to their own pensioners?  Could it be that they will have to factor in such a copper bottomed certainty into their start-up calculations and more worryingly the demographic patterns going forward. Ageing population....fewer high end salaries? 

[Smarmy Arab]

 

NI Contribution record gates entitlement to benefits such as pensions. However the money collected is not hypothecated. It is over 20% of HMG's revenue and still it's less than the cost of the various benefit schemes.

Interesting contribution Chundy. If I understand you, central government actually top up the take to ensure DWP meet the pension commitments?  Indy Scotland (growing) Deficit anyone?

[AthensSaint]

When I think of the Tories in Perthshire, the street name "Dolphin Square" instantly comes to mind.  

[babychunder]

 

Interesting contribution Chundy. If I understand you, central government actually top up the take to ensure DWP meet the pension commitments?  Indy Scotland (growing) Deficit anyone?

The figures are:

Central Gov Tax Revenue FY2016 : £566bn

Of which NI Contributions were      : £124bn

Spending on Benefits was              : £154bn

That gap is growing. An independent Scotland would be on the hook for £5bn-odd of it in 2018.

[babychunder]

Here's the breakdown from UKPUBLICSPENDING. Estimates for FY 2016 in HM Treasury PESAs(2)

Change View: default COFOG

Actual 2016

[–]

Pensions

154.7

[+]

Sickness and disability

43.7

[+]

Old age

109.8

[+]

Survivors

1.2

[+]

Pensions n.e.c.

n/a

Edited May 10, 2017 by babychunder

[babychunder]

Meant to say, the above numbers don't include Widow's, Unemployment, Incapacity, Maternity etc. that are all gated by NI contributions. I don't have the precise figures but have heard that pensions is 90% of the total "NI" burden.

[Abernethy Saint]

File under "funny but true"....

 

 

[Smarmy Arab]

I know, I know  AS never mind the details, reach for the flag...............Freedom.....................Labour baaaad.................Wastemonster......liars......er......expenses...er.....perfidious Albion.......er.....Trident.....Tony Blair................Toareez.....

 

.ad nauseam........ad infanitum.................................

[Smarmy Arab]

 

Meant to say, the above numbers don't include Widow's, Unemployment, Incapacity, Maternity etc. that are all gated by NI contributions. I don't have the precise figures but have heard that pensions is 90% of the total "NI" burden.

Come on Chundy!  these are just facts and researched knowledge!  You can argue anything with stuff like that!   

[Abernethy Saint]

errrr what flag? What are you Dugdaling on about now?

Btw, I need to correct a false impression you picked up earlier - I USED to work for the Scottish government. If you're in any way senior, you can't work in government and enter debates like this without getting punted,

[Abernethy Saint]

 

Come on Chundy!  these are just facts and researched knowledge!  You can argue anything with stuff like that!   

Is there anyone who didn't know the NI fund doesn't cover pensions and benefits? It never did. No UK government tax revenue has ever been hypothecated.

BC is absolutely correct, but I don't see how it adds to any side of the debate. Governments raise money, and spend money. Every country in the world except I think Norway currently spends more than it raises. Very few do this to the truly awesome extent the Red/Blue U.K. Governments manage to. So them lecturing potential new states on potential fiscal deficits is just funny.

Werent you going to be rude about the Tories? Did you forget?

[Abernethy Saint]

Meanwhile, Councils across Scotland finalise seating arrangements for Labour Councillors....