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The big COVID-19 Shutdown

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15 minutes ago, south inch said:

There are loads of suggestions on Sportsound and other discussion programmes as to how best deal with the current problem.  The only common factor I have noted is the oft repeated phrase "it will depend on discussions with the TV companies".

Confirmation of who controls world sport.

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2 hours ago, Cagey said:

Confirmation of who controls world sport.

The problem is, Prize Money comes direct from the TV companies. 
 

It’s very much down to them if they’ll pay up the whole sum without 100% of the content, or pay up early. Unlikely, given that I’m about to cancel my Sky Sports for a few months and I suspect many others will be too. 

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I believe things will ease back back late June based on closely following our china operation and their feedback on the cycle. But they shut everything down for 4-6 weeks once they realized the severity, west has been slow to follow suit. Virus will come back again in 4th quarter, and by then we should have as good a vaccine as we can in place...our governor is very aggressive here, saying schools will probably be out for rest of school year (shut for 4 weeks now), and shut down all restaurants, bars, public gatherings starting 9pm tonight. Odd and scary times, think ill be more on the preppers forums than footy ones for a while!

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4 hours ago, Cleveland-Saint said:

I believe things will ease back back late June based on closely following our china operation and their feedback on the cycle. But they shut everything down for 4-6 weeks once they realized the severity, west has been slow to follow suit. Virus will come back again in 4th quarter, and by then we should have as good a vaccine as we can in place...our governor is very aggressive here, saying schools will probably be out for rest of school year (shut for 4 weeks now), and shut down all restaurants, bars, public gatherings starting 9pm tonight. Odd and scary times, think ill be more on the preppers forums than footy ones for a while!

I think what you’re saying is completely wrong. 
 

Infected areas in China shut down completely. People have been forced to be housebound for 5+ weeks, and still are. 
 

meanwhile here the schools are open, Bath half marathon went ahead yesterday, as did Cheltenham festival last week. 
 

There is no danger that we’ll be anything like China in getting this under control. 
 

Best estimates for a vaccine right now is 12-18 months because it has to go through the process. It has to go through a substantial animal testing then human testing process before anything can be produced to scale 

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Worth noting that the Scottish Government have not banned large gatherings, they have advised that large gatherings are not held where there is a requirement to have the emergency services present.

I work in an Office of more than 500, no restriction. The Playhouse in Edinburgh for instance has been and will in the meantime continue to run for the Lion King with 3000 folk, as they don't require the emergency services to be present.

Virtually none of the lower league teams in Scotland would require ambulance or police to be present during a match and very seldom have more than 500 at a game.

The present arrangements are contradictory to say the least.

 

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2 hours ago, mainstand said:

Worth noting that the Scottish Government have not banned large gatherings, they have advised that large gatherings are not held where there is a requirement to have the emergency services present.

I work in an Office of more than 500, no restriction. The Playhouse in Edinburgh for instance has been and will in the meantime continue to run for the Lion King with 3000 folk, as they don't require the emergency services to be present.

Virtually none of the lower league teams in Scotland would require ambulance or police to be present during a match and very seldom have more than 500 at a game.

The present arrangements are contradictory to say the least.

 

The SG stuff is advisory because they have no devolved power to make it mandatory. What they can do and have done is effectively ban events where emergency services provision is required by withdrawing that provision. So top tier football is effectively banned, cinemas are not. The imminent UK ban will be mandatory, but it may not be universal, at least not yet.

The confusion is partly because the UK government has not got its communications act in gear yet (the daily news conferences starting today will help greatly), and partly because the Scottish government is moving faster than the UK government, and organisations and the general public are moving much faster than both of them. It’s quite confusing.

What is clear is that we’re  all going to be required to isolate more and more (possibly gradually, possibly in big steps), and a full lockdown may only be a few weeks away. There is no rational reason whatsoever to believe the very restrictive measures on the continent will not be replicated here, and some reason to believe it will be worse here because the UK response has been slow.

In this context, restarting football is just not a priority, and pretty soon even talking about it would be fairly ridiculous. 

Shit, it would appear, is real. Take care everybody.

Edited by Abernethy Saint

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10 hours ago, Pat McGroin said:

I think what you’re saying is completely wrong. 
 

Infected areas in China shut down completely. People have been forced to be housebound for 5+ weeks, and still are. 
 

meanwhile here the schools are open, Bath half marathon went ahead yesterday, as did Cheltenham festival last week. 
 

There is no danger that we’ll be anything like China in getting this under control. 
 

Best estimates for a vaccine right now is 12-18 months because it has to go through the process. It has to go through a substantial animal testing then human testing process before anything can be produced to scale 

I said that China completely shut down for 4-6 weeks!

Our china operations/businesses are back at work, open for business, having lunch in restaurants out and about with clients...only exception is our Wuhan office that remains closed. We do temp readings on any visitors/trucker etc coming to our locations. So based on this, is why I'm thinking late June for western countries, especially if they do hard lock downs like we are seeing in the US. 

Here's an article outlining attractions being re-opened also. https://www.shine.cn/news/metro/2003164416/ 

I'm in the freight business, and we are on calls with China daily. Outbound vessels and customers volumes/forecasts are back to 80% levels, year over year. Bookings/volumes strengthening across all sectors. So from our perspective, things are normalizing there, as well as SE Asia.

I believe that governments/private sector will come together and we will see a vaccine in record time, I think 12-18 months is extremely unlikely.

 

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8 hours ago, mainstand said:

Worth noting that the Scottish Government have not banned large gatherings, they have advised that large gatherings are not held where there is a requirement to have the emergency services present.

I work in an Office of more than 500, no restriction. The Playhouse in Edinburgh for instance has been and will in the meantime continue to run for the Lion King with 3000 folk, as they don't require the emergency services to be present.

Virtually none of the lower league teams in Scotland would require ambulance or police to be present during a match and very seldom have more than 500 at a game.

The present arrangements are contradictory to say the least.

 

We just made a decision today to have all our employees to work from home, across all 43 offices in the US. Not sure why the UK is behind on all this, is there any reason why Scotland hasn't mandated any bans on large gatherings? I agree, it feels very contradictory.

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1 minute ago, Cleveland-Saint said:

We just made a decision today to have all our employees to work from home, across all 43 offices in the US. Not sure why the UK is behind on all this, is there any reason why Scotland hasn't mandated any bans on large gatherings? I agree, it feels very contradictory.

It seems like the UK government can't make its mind up. They're shutting some stuff to delay the spread, but they're also promoting an accelerated herd-immunity strategy (which no other country is).

I suspect it's just a matter of time before you're all in the shit with the rest of us. I've been working from home for the past week and and a half. Schools shut today for a month. Kids are annoying me already. Stores are out of toilet paper and the pubs are closed.

And there's no bloody fitba.

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Just now, california_saintee said:

It seems like the UK government can't make its mind up. They're shutting some stuff to delay the spread, but they're also promoting an accelerated herd-immunity strategy (which no other country is).

I suspect it's just a matter of time before you're all in the shit with the rest of us. I've been working from home for the past week and and a half. Schools shut today for a month. Kids are annoying me already. Stores are out of toilet paper and the pubs are closed.

And there's no bloody fitba.

china side saying, dont worry about toilet paper, just make sure you have coffee, apparently they ran out!! Id rather be doing the flannel on my arse than no cup of Joe in the morning. Kids are going to be a nightmare for me also if this drags on....  thanks god for x-box right now

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33 minutes ago, Cleveland-Saint said:

I said that China completely shut down for 4-6 weeks!

Our china operations/businesses are back at work, open for business, having lunch in restaurants out and about with clients...only exception is our Wuhan office that remains closed. We do temp readings on any visitors/trucker etc coming to our locations. So based on this, is why I'm thinking late June for western countries, especially if they do hard lock downs like we are seeing in the US. 

Here's an article outlining attractions being re-opened also. https://www.shine.cn/news/metro/2003164416/ 

I'm in the freight business, and we are on calls with China daily. Outbound vessels and customers volumes/forecasts are back to 80% levels, year over year. Bookings/volumes strengthening across all sectors. So from our perspective, things are normalizing there, as well as SE Asia.

I believe that governments/private sector will come together and we will see a vaccine in record time, I think 12-18 months is extremely unlikely.

 

My point was that I don’t see the U.K. locking down millions of people effectively on house arrest like China did, so I don’t foresee a quick resolution. I don’t think Brits would accept that at all. 
 

Wuhan is really the most import area when talking about mass infection. 

 

Interesting to read that a man in Japan has been infected for a second time too, a month after coming off the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship. 

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One issue with the lock down in Wuhan province was that virtually all movement there is by public transport. Close that down and there is an effective lockdown. In the UK a lot of us move via motor vehicles, very difficult to shut down without a lot of police presence. 
anyway, the UK gov had a straight choice between protecting the people or keeping the economy ticking over.....no real need to guess which one these Tory parasites chose! 

AFD2C02B-0ECD-4ED5-ABFD-877AE0D8A48B.jpeg

Edited by dunblanemike

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57 minutes ago, Pat McGroin said:

My point was that I don’t see the U.K. locking down millions of people effectively on house arrest like China did, so I don’t foresee a quick resolution. I don’t think Brits would accept that at all. 
 

Wuhan is really the most import area when talking about mass infection. 

 

Interesting to read that a man in Japan has been infected for a second time too, a month after coming off the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship. 

Agree.

Interesting situation here in the states where you have 50 independent decision makers versus just the central government. 

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1 hour ago, Cleveland-Saint said:

I believe that governments/private sector will come together and we will see a vaccine in record time, I think 12-18 months is extremely unlikely.

 

I see there already testing a vaccine with 45 volunteers in Seattle.

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Potential vaccines have already been developed - that’s the easy bit. The delay is in the testing, first on animals, and then humans. It won’t take long to determine if they work. The issue is side-effects, ie whether your next child is born with gills, three willies and wants to support Rangers*. Or it gives you toe cancer, or something. Ever since thalidomide, testing is extremely onerous and lengthy. It can be shortened in emergencies, but the shorter it is, the higher the risk, and remember almost everyone might be given it. They might rush it out, but that’s a hell of a call.

Every year there is at least one new flu - vaccines are developed not for that outbreak, that year, but to incorporate it into the flu vaccine for next year.

in short, the length of the lockdown probably isn’t related to the availability of a vaccine - that’s for the second wave, next winter. It’s related to how long it takes the first wave to run out of hosts and burn out. That can only be achieved through isolation. China and South Korea have done it (it looks like), and so can we, but we have to do what they did, and drop the “but we’re BRITISH” shite.

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On 3/14/2020 at 12:47 AM, Ginger Bakers rebel army said:

Cash in bank on last report and accounts:

Hamilton 120k

Livi 206k

County 266k

Well 476k

Fake saints 502k

Jam tarts 591k

New rangers 1.03m

Killie 1.15m

Dons 2.01m

Our wee team 2.17m

Hibees 4.2m

Green monster bulging biscuit tin overflowing with cash. 

With substantial running costs, off field income will be critical, can't see banks being allowed to keep clubs going, can see redundancies happening quickly at some clubs in both playing and non playing staff. 

Much as I slag of the Brown's for lack of communication you can't help but thank them with their financial prudence. 

There's 9 SPFL clubs in a worse cash position than ours. 

Scarry times for Scottish football. 

Thankyou Ginger! I didn't realise how f#cked the league is. What a mess. Killie are stuffed.

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1 hour ago, Abernethy Saint said:

Potential vaccines have already been developed - that’s the easy bit. The delay is in the testing, first on animals, and then humans. It won’t take long to determine if they work. The issue is side-effects, ie whether your next child is born with gills, three willies and wants to support Rangers*. Or it gives you toe cancer, or something. Ever since thalidomide, testing is extremely onerous and lengthy. It can be shortened in emergencies, but the shorter it is, the higher the risk, and remember almost everyone might be given it. They might rush it out, but that’s a hell of a call.

Every year there is at least one new flu - vaccines are developed not for that outbreak, that year, but to incorporate it into the flu vaccine for next year.

in short, the length of the lockdown probably isn’t related to the availability of a vaccine - that’s for the second wave, next winter. It’s related to how long it takes the first wave to run out of hosts and burn out. That can only be achieved through isolation. China and South Korea have done it (it looks like), and so can we, but we have to do what they did, and drop the “but we’re BRITISH” shite.

I work on commercialing new technology, through Walter Eliza Hall Institute (WEHI) and other research labs. There is no quick fix. It's a monster. it takes 10-15 years to go through clinical trials. 

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1 hour ago, Abernethy Saint said:

Potential vaccines have already been developed - that’s the easy bit. The delay is in the testing, first on animals, and then humans. It won’t take long to determine if they work. The issue is side-effects, ie whether your next child is born with gills, three willies and wants to support Rangers*. Or it gives you toe cancer, or something. Ever since thalidomide, testing is extremely onerous and lengthy. It can be shortened in emergencies, but the shorter it is, the higher the risk, and remember almost everyone might be given it. They might rush it out, but that’s a hell of a call.

Every year there is at least one new flu - vaccines are developed not for that outbreak, that year, but to incorporate it into the flu vaccine for next year.

in short, the length of the lockdown probably isn’t related to the availability of a vaccine - that’s for the second wave, next winter. It’s related to how long it takes the first wave to run out of hosts and burn out. That can only be achieved through isolation. China and South Korea have done it (it looks like), and so can we, but we have to do what they did, and drop the “but we’re BRITISH” shite.

This is very different Abernethy. It's not a normal flu. That kills 80,000 per annum. This jumps borders like no other. It will take 5-10 years to recover. 

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29 minutes ago, Melbourne Saint said:

Thankyou Ginger! I didn't realise how f#cked the league is. What a mess. Killie are stuffed.

I'm maybe not reading this properly...why are Killie stuffed?....they look like they are in a pretty healthy(ish) position.

Hearts on the other hand....:shock:

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1 minute ago, Papa Jack said:

I'm maybe not reading this properly...why are Killie stuffed?....they look like they are in a pretty healthy(ish) position.

Hearts on the other hand....:shock:

Killie have a false donor. They'll pull the cash soon enough. 

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2 hours ago, Abernethy Saint said:

Potential vaccines have already been developed - that’s the easy bit. The delay is in the testing, first on animals, and then humans. It won’t take long to determine if they work. The issue is side-effects, ie whether your next child is born with gills, three willies and wants to support Rangers*. Or it gives you toe cancer, or something. Ever since thalidomide, testing is extremely onerous and lengthy. It can be shortened in emergencies, but the shorter it is, the higher the risk, and remember almost everyone might be given it. They might rush it out, but that’s a hell of a call.

Every year there is at least one new flu - vaccines are developed not for that outbreak, that year, but to incorporate it into the flu vaccine for next year.

in short, the length of the lockdown probably isn’t related to the availability of a vaccine - that’s for the second wave, next winter. It’s related to how long it takes the first wave to run out of hosts and burn out. That can only be achieved through isolation. China and South Korea have done it (it looks like), and so can we, but we have to do what they did, and drop the “but we’re BRITISH” shite.

This is on point

It's  what we're being told by local Cleveland clinic specialists, the key is this burns out and we have a vaccine in place for winter wave. Ohio is being aggressive on this, hopefully rest of the country and UK follows.

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