Corbyn. Braw. Discuss.

[Oldermoresensiblepack]

The polls I've seen in the last few days show the projected Labour vote in Scotland still dropping, and the SNP firmly on course for a landslide in May. Indeed, the most likely big event between now and then is Labour in Scotland dropping to third behind a slightly resurgent Tory party. Such was the extent of their treachery during Indy ref, and such is the depth of contempt they are now held in across Scotland, particularly in the previously core support households they so gleefully and stupidly betrayed by backing the Tories, that they are utterly fecked as far as elections in 2016 and 2017 go. Sure, the SNP won't dominate for ever - there will be no need for them once we are free - but the idea that the election as party leader of a bloke that, rightly or wrongly, is loathed by his own parliamentary parties in the UK and Scotland is going to bring about the SNP's fall from power is, with respect, barmy. 

By 2017, the SNP will hold virtually every seat at local, Scottish and UK level that the mathematics of the various PR systems allow them to. Even as a lifelong SNP supporter, I'm not comfortable with that. I don't see it changing until at least one of the opposition parties completely re-invents itself. In Scotland at least, they show no sign of even recognising the need to do so, still spouting the same old SNP Baaaaaaad shite day after day after day even as the only folk now supporting Labour are deranged Sevco supporters, the only folk supporting the Tories are dying off, and the only folk supporting the LibDems are too preoccupied supporting a self-confessed liar.

Around 80% of youngsters just coming into the electorate identify as SNP supporters. End of the SNP's dominance? We're just getting started......... We WILL be a Free People, and Corbyn is just a bit of light entertainment for the couple of years it will take for the English Oxbridge establishment to reclaim and tame their pet, token opposition party.

 

The bit in bold confirmed for me that the difference between Con and Lab had shrunk down so as to make it difficult to tell what carriage of the gravy train they were in.

[Abernethy Saint]

Red Tories. Traitors to their class, country and once-great party.

[Crossest Man In Scotland]

The polls I've seen in the last few days show the projected Labour vote in Scotland still dropping, and the SNP firmly on course for a landslide in May. Indeed, the most likely big event between now and then is Labour in Scotland dropping to third behind a slightly resurgent Tory party. Such was the extent of their treachery during Indy ref, and such is the depth of contempt they are now held in across Scotland, particularly in the previously core support households they so gleefully and stupidly betrayed by backing the Tories, that they are utterly fecked as far as elections in 2016 and 2017 go. Sure, the SNP won't dominate for ever - there will be no need for them once we are free - but the idea that the election as party leader of a bloke that, rightly or wrongly, is loathed by his own parliamentary parties in the UK and Scotland is going to bring about the SNP's fall from power is, with respect, barmy. 

By 2017, the SNP will hold virtually every seat at local, Scottish and UK level that the mathematics of the various PR systems allow them to. Even as a lifelong SNP supporter, I'm not comfortable with that. I don't see it changing until at least one of the opposition parties completely re-invents itself. In Scotland at least, they show no sign of even recognising the need to do so, still spouting the same old SNP Baaaaaaad shite day after day after day even as the only folk now supporting Labour are deranged Sevco supporters, the only folk supporting the Tories are dying off, and the only folk supporting the LibDems are too preoccupied supporting a self-confessed liar.

Around 80% of youngsters just coming into the electorate identify as SNP supporters. End of the SNP's dominance? We're just getting started......... We WILL be a Free People, and Corbyn is just a bit of light entertainment for the couple of years it will take for the English Oxbridge establishment to reclaim and tame their pet, token opposition party.

 

It's posts like this which lead the silent majority who decisively voted No last year to think that SNP is no longer a sensible political party but a crazed extreme left-wing cult with totalitarian tendencies. The SNP's record in government is appalling: public services are in disarray and they have launched daft policies like reducing the drink-drive limit and imposing "state guardians" on children (including the 16 and 17 year old's who they paradoxically believe are mature enough to vote). Any attempt to engage in debate with SNP supporters appears to be futile as they simply chant the mantra "Nicola Good, Westminster Bad".

[Paul N Shark]

Corbyn is going to be an utter embarrassment to the Labour Party and hasn't a snowballs chance in hell of ousting the Tories. 

[canuck_saint]

 and they have launched daft policies like reducing the drink-drive limit

Feckin mad those Nats - why anyone would want LESS drunk drivers on the road is clearly madness. Lets increase the limit to, maybe 20 vodka and red bulls to help out the pub trade. Throw in a couple of compulsory spliffs for anyone on the school run

[Abernethy Saint]

Aye - fancy reducing drink driving arrests by 20% within weeks by bringing Scotland's drink driving rules into line with virtually all of crazy, left-wing Europe except England. Basta rds, hey?

[Oldermoresensiblepack]

I vote S.N.P. and no way could you call me left wing!!

I'm a Nationalist with a few Socialist tendencies.

[Smarmy Arab]

Interesting times, SNP sh*t in their pants at the election of JC, hence their ill-advised announcement on a 2nd ref.......NS's first major error. 

Very interesting to see how JC will go down with the rest of the UK......he has certainly wrong footed the stuffed suits of the political class.  Has declared open war with the Murdoch press........whilst Wee Nippy has a champaign breakfast in New York with the beast himself, why the secrecy?...............................................just sayin!

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11836482/Nicola-Sturgeon-fails-to-disclose-Rupert-Murdoch-meeting.html

[Honest Saints Fan]

Shite their pants? Lulz. Mind when the media told us Murphy would outsmart the SNP? They are polling higher than ever before. They will romp home the Scottish elections next year. They will dominate Scotland for a few years yet.

[saintj]

At the end of the day he is a unionist and doesn't support Scotland getting any significant new powers never mind independence.Be interesting to see how much of an impact he can have up here given that he isn't the same as the rest of them since before Tony Bliar came in to power.

 

I don't see how Nicola has made a major error seeing as she hasn't said anything that hasn't already been said about another referendum.

[saintj]

Shite their pants? Lulz. Mind when the media told us Murphy would outsmart the SNP? They are polling higher than ever before. They will romp home the Scottish elections next year. They will dominate Scotland for a few years yet.

I mind Murphy saying how slow and sluggish the SNP had been and how easily he was outsmarting them... What a good laugh he turned out to be ha!

[Abernethy Saint]

Can someone explain to me why Corbyn should sing a seriously crap song about a god he doesn't believe exists (which it doesn't) about a ridiculous hereditary monarchy which he believes shouldn't exist (which it shouldnt) which quite clearly is in absolutely no need of being saved anyway because the Oxbridge elite find it a useful way of distracting you whilst they steal your money. And that's before we get to the infamous third verse, in which the imaginary deity and the lucky sperm German wifie are begged to crush Scottish people. You couldn't make it up. Yet they did. and mind-boggling numbers of you still believe this shite, and wilfully part your buttock cheeks so they can keep on shafting you. WAKE UP.

[Oldermoresensiblepack]

Can someone explain to me why Corbyn should sing a seriously crap song about a god he doesn't believe exists (which it doesn't) about a ridiculous hereditary monarchy which he believes shouldn't exist (which it shouldnt) which quite clearly is in absolutely no need of being saved anyway because the Oxbridge elite find it a useful way of distracting you whilst they steal your money. And that's before we get to the infamous third verse, in which the imaginary deity and the lucky sperm German wifie are begged to crush Scottish people. You couldn't make it up. Yet they did. and mind-boggling numbers of you still believe this shite, and wilfully part your buttock cheeks so they can keep on shafting you. WAKE UP.

Was never an official part of the song, was made up by some music hall type to ingratiate himself with the German lairdie. Although it was widely used by the Hanovarian supporters.

#ifyouknowyourhistory

[Smarmy Arab]

Shite their pants? Lulz. Mind when the media told us Murphy would outsmart the SNP? They are polling higher than ever before. They will romp home the Scottish elections next year. They will dominate Scotland for a few years yet.

They will no doubt be the dominant force for the next while, but they have talked left and acted right for years now.  A JC Labour party will call them out on this.  The angry nats, who cannot see past the constitution will continue with their attempt to bore the majority into another ref, but people who actually monitor what the scottish goverment are doing will be less forgiving.  Health, education, police are in crisis right now, sooner or later the Scottish electorate will ask questions and stop accepting the excuse that someone else is responisble.   It has only been 4 days since JC was elected, there have not been any polls yet, and there is no doubt the SNP must start to enact their leftist rhetoric or they will pay a price at the polls. 

[Smarmy Arab]

At the end of the day he is a unionist and doesn't support Scotland getting any significant new powers never mind independence.Be interesting to see how much of an impact he can have up here given that he isn't the same as the rest of them since before Tony Bliar came in to power.

 

I don't see how Nicola has made a major error seeing as she hasn't said anything that hasn't already been said about another referendum.

I think its an error, you cannot sign and agreement to respect the plebicite then start planning another......on what planet does losing a referendum on major constitutional change entiltle you to another????  The vote was NO by a substantial margin, I think it would be a mistake for the SNP to listen to Alex Salmond et.al and push for another when nothing has changed.  Here is an excellent article, written by a Yes supporter and member of the SNP;

 

http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/be-critical-have-patience.html

[south inch]

I think its an error, you cannot sign and agreement to respect the plebicite then start planning another......on what planet does losing a referendum on major constitutional change entiltle you to another????  The vote was NO by a substantial margin, I think it would be a mistake for the SNP to listen to Alex Salmond et.al and push for another when nothing has changed.  Here is an excellent article, written by a Yes supporter and member of the SNP;

 

http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/be-critical-have-patience.html

Excellent stuff.  In my opinion that article could have been written by Nicola Sturgeon - "I'm not interested in holding a second referendum, I'm interested in winning a second referendum".

[Smarmy Arab]

I think you're correct SI, which is why I think NS was panicked into the announcement at the weekend to try to get Corbyn of the front pages.

 

[Honest Saints Fan]

They will no doubt be the dominant force for the next while, but they have talked left and acted right for years now.  A JC Labour party will call them out on this.  The angry nats, who cannot see past the constitution will continue with their attempt to bore the majority into another ref, but people who actually monitor what the scottish goverment are doing will be less forgiving.  Health, education, police are in crisis right now, sooner or later the Scottish electorate will ask questions and stop accepting the excuse that someone else is responisble.   It has only been 4 days since JC was elected, there have not been any polls yet, and there is no doubt the SNP must start to enact their leftist rhetoric or they will pay a price at the polls. 

You say they are in a crisis but polls again are showing that the majority of Scots do not think this. Polling over 50% satisfaction in education and health. I'm not a Nat but credit to the SNP they are going to be in charge in Scotland for at least another decade. They'll go into May again with a majority in a parliament designed to stop this. Fair play indeed.

 

JC will not be in charge of Labour come May. He will be ousted by the Blairites long before then.

Edited September 17, 2015 by Honest Saints Fan

[Smarmy Arab]

All fair points HSF, but I think the big problem for populist politicians is always to deliver what they all to easily promise.  The SNP are a slick political operation and are in the incredibly advantageous position of being able to blame someone else...always.  I don't think that position is sustainable in even the medium term. Sooner or later people will want to know, for example, why health spending in Scotland is increasing at a slower rate than in Tory England or why significantly more students from poorer backgrounds are making it to Higher Education in Tory England than in 'egalitarian' Scotland.

 

As for JC, again you may be right, but you never know, maybe JC has caught the mood among electorally significant new demographics and the careerists in the New Labour movement will simply have to face the new circumstances.

[Kyle]

I agree with Smarmy here to be honest. The constitution is the primary concern for a huge chunk of the SNP voter pool, those who follow their record in government more closely wont be too impressed. Their NHS record, whilst improving, isn't great, education and policing are a bit of a shambles, they've banned GM crops without any basis in scientific fact and their stance on Fracking at the moment is absolutely no where.

My biggest concern in Scotland is the state of the opposition. Labour are a complete cluster**** - Corbyn may push them more to the left, but I don't think they've really got a strong leftist base in their elected MSPs outside of Neil Findlay at the moment. The Tories are the Tories - they can boast an excellent leader in Scotland, but they'll never be more than a fringe movement up here. The Greens will gain a few seats on the list, but again they'll not really be able to hold the SNP to account and the Lib Dems could face an absolute wipe out next year. UKIP might get a seat on the list and this RISE party seem like a complete waste of time, albeit they seem reasonably well intentioned.

Whilst the constitution remains so high on the agenda for a lot of people - if the SNP vote dips under 45% in either the list or the constituency vote I'll be utterly stunned - the SNP will end up in power regardless of their record in Government. I voted yes last year, but really, for a movement that was supposedly all about social justice and bettering Scotland, that's really not a healthy position to find ourselves in.

I'm really not sure what to do at next year's election. The next 5 years will end up being all about another referendum if the SNP get another majority, regardless of whether they're pushing the agenda or not.

[Abernethy Saint]

Don't actually disagree with much of that. The problem socially-aware voters in Scotland have is that because of various legacy issues, as well as the pitiful condition of the opposition, there is no one else to vote for with the possible exception of the Greens. We're going to pretty much have to keep voting SNP, even if they go past their sell-by date, as all governments do. The one bright spot is that the new members from the broader yes movement who joined up after the referendum will probably breathe in some new life as some of them find themselves as MSP's (many of the 56 were from this group and are a pretty talented bunch). I think that's what Sturgeon is aiming for, if you follow the candidate selection process. I've always seen the SNP as simply a vehicle for freedom. The irony is that we might win the independence argument just as many more people start having serious doubts about the SNP.  I have no problem with that - it's never been about a party for me, except the belter of a party we will have on Independence Day.

[Kyle]

Reading your post doesn't really disagree with anything I've said! I agree about the sad state of the opposition, I agree that the SNP can put a case forward to being the party most likely to improve some pretty sorry figures just now (but only because the opposition are so weak, not because of the strength of the SNP's performance) and I see SNP in exactly the same way.

We've just had the referendum though, and I'd rather the Scottish Government focussed on leading the country rather than building up to the next one. The UK government are currently doing a pretty good job at alienating Scots and I know the opposition are the ones that are often guilty of bringing up a second indy ref, but it really isn't conducive to good Governance.

I live in a Glasgow constituency at the moment, so will likely lend my constituency vote to the SNP. Patrick harvie is standing in this constituency too, but he'll have to make do with my list vote as I don't want to let labour in the back door here when they're in such a mess. 

[Honest Saints Fan]

You have to vote P. Harvie. An absolutely top man. Outside Nicola, the Nats have nothing on him.

I'm voting Green Constituency and List probably. The outgoing SNP MSP voted against same sex marriage up here and the incoming SNP candidate is a religious nutter too.

[Abernethy Saint]

Reading your post doesn't really disagree with anything I've said! I agree about the sad state of the opposition, I agree that the SNP can put a case forward to being the party most likely to improve some pretty sorry figures just now (but only because the opposition are so weak, not because of the strength of the SNP's performance) and I see SNP in exactly the same way.

We've just had the referendum though, and I'd rather the Scottish Government focussed on leading the country rather than building up to the next one. The UK government are currently doing a pretty good job at alienating Scots and I know the opposition are the ones that are often guilty of bringing up a second indy ref, but it really isn't conducive to good Governance.

I live in a Glasgow constituency at the moment, so will likely lend my constituency vote to the SNP. Patrick harvie is standing in this constituency too, but he'll have to make do with my list vote as I don't want to let labour in the back door here when they're in such a mess. 

You'll know there is a big debate at the moment amongst the faithful as to whether to give the Greens our list vote. We were intent on doing so, and the polls clearly show many others are thinking along these lines. The logic is superficially attractive - we can't win many list seats, because the whole point is to even-out the under-representation caused by the first past the post element, which we will romp. So give your list vote to the Greens, so as to increase the overall Number of Yes seats.

However, we've changed our mind. The argument for voting SNP - SNP is pretty hard to get your head around (well, we thought so!). In essence, voting Green on the list will actually only increase the overall yes seats by very few at most. This is because the Greens will tend to take SNP list seats. And, the strategy actually risks back-firing and losing the SNP majority. 

I don't know if you follow Wings Over Scotland. He sets out his analysis in three blogs, starting with this one:

http://wingsoverscotland.com/ams-for-lazy-people/

its pretty convincing. Of course, anyone committed to Green Party policies should vote Green regardless. But if the objective is to increase or safeguard the Yes representation, it has to be SNP - SNP in my view.

 

[canuck_saint]

I'm a Nationalist with a few Socialist tendencies.

If memory serves, the last load of national socialists in europe didnae do too well in the long term