Rise of the Tories...........

[babychunder]

 

Had a wee trip round Sunday don't think so 

I did when I was up too. Noticed that nearly every hoose has a driveway and a shiny motor in it. I think there were maybe three folk had cars in my bit of Rannoch Road. Definitely more money about (or maybe cars got cheaper).

[Cagey]

 

I did when I was up too. Noticed that nearly every hoose has a driveway and a shiny motor in it. I think there were maybe three folk had cars in my bit of Rannoch Road. Definitely more money about (or maybe cars got cheaper).

Driveways in Rannoch Road. Sure you were in the right place.

 

[garydavidson]

 

Er?  No.  The Labour vote held up well, indeed it increased.  Their only MP from 2015 increased his majority from a couple of hundred to 15 thousand, and labour increased its seat haul by 600%.  The big story was the Tories around rural Scotland returning to the fold and deserting the SNP in droves   

Even more encouraging for labour is an additional 6 seats now hanging by a thread with snp majorities ranging from 10 to 400., and several others clearly in play.  The only reason Labour did not add another 10+ seats is probably due to elements of West Central Scotland voting tory due to the continued deformity of Scottish politics by the indy debate.  But things could take a turn, whereby the British nationalists of the tories and the Scottish nationalists of the snp cancel each other out and labour benefit by sticking to real political activity, not the emotional clap trap peddled by flag shagging nationalists. 

Kezia has had a difficult job to do, 2015 was the nadir for scottish labour, predicted meltdown and disintegration has not occurred, actually labour are back in the game! She was critical of corbyn, lots of people have been and with sound reason, this is not a reason for resignation, the labour party is and always has been a democratic mix; socialists, social Democrats, progressIves,  Christians, trades unions and others. They pay a terrible electoral price for this, as division is a constant impediment to success in ofiice and effective opposition, but I much prefer democratic debate to the anti democratic structure of the the Tories or the snp.  The snp no longer have a constitution....just a message from 'Nicola'.  They have outlawed dissent from within their ranks with an quasi trotskite structure of 'democratic' centralism with enforced centralisation of power and technocratic managerialism squeezing the debate out of the party structures (just as Blair did).  I suppose it depends how you like your politics........maybe nationalists prefer this follow the flag shyte, rather than real debate.....I don't.  After the initial shock of the results on Thursday, I note with increasing amusement that the nationalists have quickly reverted to type, and appear hell bent on continuing the incessant demand for indy ref 2/3/4/5...this coupled with continued drip drip of bad news from the public services means they are set to lose more ground....they have learned nothing, if they continue to treat the electorate with such utter contempt they will sink ....Kezia Dugdale as next first minister?.....the vehement anger of the Nats at this prospect is palpable, not as ridiculous as it may have sounded this time a year ago!

It is very easy to make your percentages look impressive when you start from 1 and go to 7. The fact of the matter is that was the second best performance the SNP has had in a general election - how did Scottish Labour fair in comparison?

You were defeated by the Tories in Scotland whilst standing on the same single policy.

I also chuckled at your previous post blaming the SNP for May still being in power due to them winning seats in Scotland, in 2015 was the Tory government not also the fault of the SNP for winning all but three seats in Scotland? 

You really are allowing your anger to get the best of you with petty insults such as "flag shagging nationalists", you make yourself a weak debater with such drivel. 

Kezia Dugdale as first minister probably scares as many Labour voters as it does SNP.  

[babychunder]

 

Driveways in Rannoch Road. Sure you were in the right place.

 

My auld hoose - check it out.

[Smarmy Arab]

 

It is very easy to make your percentages look impressive when you start from 1 and go to 7. The fact of the matter is that was the second best performance the SNP has had in a general election - how did Scottish Labour fair in comparison?

You were defeated by the Tories in Scotland whilst standing on the same single policy.

I also chuckled at your previous post blaming the SNP for May still being in power due to them winning seats in Scotland, in 2015 was the Tory government not also the fault of the SNP for winning all but three seats in Scotland? 

You really are allowing your anger to get the best of you with petty insults such as "flag shagging nationalists", you make yourself a weak debater with such drivel. 

Kezia Dugdale as first minister probably scares as many Labour voters as it does SNP.  

Gary I am not angry, about this election, believe me, I am relaxed and confident with labours performance.  

Increase x7 or 600%? Tomato. ..tomato!

 

Yes this is the 2nd best performance of the snp ever....fact.  Nicola described the election result as 'bitterly disappointing', this too is a fact.  The snp vote fell from 50% to 37%, or 24% of the electorate this cannot be anything other than 'bitterly disappointing'.  The snp lost 21 seats and the rest had their majorities slashed....this too cannot be anything other than 'bitterly disappointing'....Angus Robertson,  and alex salmond, lost their seats, two of the snp's big-hitters, John Nicholson, tasmina sheikh Ahmed and george kerevan,  all high profile media pundits, lost their seats....front bench shredded....again 'bitterly disappointing'....you can spin this any way you like, as will I....Thursday was a good night for labour, on both sides of the border.  Thursday as a poor night for the tories in England, and a good night for the tories in Scotland....Thursday was a massive reality check for the snp...but clearly no all their supporters have been clued in.

Not sure what you mean about may being in power sue to scottish seats...this too is a fact....it does not make me chuckle I can assure you.

As for my flag shagging line....I think it's a good un....a friend of mine who is quite well placed in the snp confided in me last year that he borrows it from time to time to chide the new wave of party activists, the 'indy fundamentalists' (his line) who arrived (and then disappeared) in the wake of 2014, people whi have little real understanding of the precarious nature of political power, because they probably fail to grasp how quickly the game can change.  Indy ref 2 is, at the moment,  a vote loser, if the snp do not internalise this reality and adjust, they may well see an equivalent slump in the forthcoming elections which would be catastrophic for their central objective.   Why not follow through on the promise to respect the 2014 result, that would be a start?  

Meanwhile, another surge in labour membership and peace breaking out among the executive.  Now that the relentless constitutional wrangling has been so comprehensively rejected by the Scottish electorate, Labour can continue it's remarkable rejuvenation, and I think we both know where the votes will come from in urban scotland.

[Ali91]

The Labour revival in Scotland, in my opinion, we will see how it pans out in future elections, was down to Corbyn. I know many people from the left who have previously voted SNP, and indeed would vote yes in a future referendum, who voted Labour because their policies are very much in line with Corbyn. 

The fact the swing in Scotland was SNP >>> Tories doesn't tell the story of what actually happened imo. The left of the SNP went Labour and the britnat side of Labour went Tory. Two distinct movements within the electorate. The story of the election in Scotland was undoubatably a strengthening of the Tory vote by having a stronghold of the unionist  vote, as well as eating in to the sizeable minority of Brexit voters within Scotland, especially in places such as Moray.

Scottish Labour are so far removed from the leadership in Westminster, and thus so far removed from their membership base, I'd imagine this will eventually become clear to the electorate when they continually bang on about 'divisive referendums,' as some of their candidates did in frankly disgraceful acceptance speeches on Friday morning. 

Edited June 13, 2017 by Ali91

[Smarmy Arab]

 

The Labour revival in Scotland, in my opinion, we will see how it pans out in future elections, was down to Corbyn. I know many people from the left who have previously voted SNP, and indeed would vote yes in a future referendum, who voted Labour because their policies are very much in line with Corbyn. 

The fact the swing in Scotland was SNP >>> Tories doesn't tell the story of what actually happened imo. The left of the SNP went Labour and the britnat side of Labour went Tory. Two distinct movements within the electorate. The story of the election in Scotland was undoubatably a strengthening of the Tory vote by having a stronghold of the unionist  vote, as well as eating in to the sizeable minority of Brexit voters within Scotland, especially in places such as Moray.

Scottish Labour are so far removed from the leadership in Westminster, and thus so far removed from their membership base, I'd imagine this will eventually become clear to the electorate when they continually bang on about 'divisive referendums,' as some of their candidates did in frankly disgraceful acceptance speeches on Friday morning. 

I agree with much of that Ali, very difficult to read every nuance in the voting patterns.  The 'corbyn effect' is especially difficult to gauge in Scotland because the constitution shadows everything.  The corbyn manifesto is mainstream social democracy, nothing particularly radical, most if not all labour people can work with it.....including scottish labour, whose left wing core was held together admirably be Neil Findlay.  But the labour vote only in creased by 2% up to 28%, some 10000 votes, great news if you had believed the polls 3 weeks ago that had scottish labour at 13%.    Therefore, in raw statistics there was no collapse, nor was there a surge.  

The surge was snp to tory.  What did anyone really expect if the Scottish government fail to pass a single piece of legislation for a calendar year, yet find time to debate independence refs, more than once? The snp made this election a ref on the ref.....they should now have humility to suck up the result...but no...the default position is to blame labour and kezia Dugdale, as usual take no *ucking responsibility for their own errors.  Nothing disgraceful about pointing out the fact that the 'unionist' vote now doubles the nationalist vote, and reminding the snp that this is entirely their design.   If the snp continue to agitate for more refs they are treating the electorate with contempt......again ......so back to the day job.  Independence is dead for a decade.....at least.

Truth is scottish nationalists fear labour governments,  and their fear is real, especially with the corbynites band wagon now heading north.  Labour themselves had begun to write scottish votes off......not now, a majority showing now a distinct possibility........watch this space.......

Edited June 13, 2017 by Smarmy Arab

[Smarmy Arab]

...I am heartened to hear voters are coming back to labour from the snp, but I think this process is only beginning.  

One other thing;

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15343496.SNP_abandons___1m_fundraising_appeal_for_second_referendum/

 

Maybe nothing, maybe something? Just what Nicola needs!

Edited June 13, 2017 by Smarmy Arab

[south inch]

 

Two things South Inch; he doesn't listen, and there is nothing 'bonnie' about me or Dundee!

Been away for a few days SA.  Two things in response, you are too modest and my wife comes from Dundee - you'll get me hung!

[south inch]

 

.

I also chuckled at your previous post blaming the SNP for May still being in power due to them winning seats in Scotland, in 2015 was the Tory government not also the fault of the SNP for winning all but three seats in Scotland? 

 

Sorry but I have a boring mathematical mind.  You can only stop a party gaining a majority by winning seats from that party.  The SNP did not win a single seat from the Tories in 2015 (they only had one seat up here anyway) all they did was rearrange the anti Tory seats.  This time SNP lost 12 seats to the Tories thus raising their Scottish holding to 13.  Without those 13 seats Theresa would have been drawing her PM pension by now so no doubt Nicola is top of her Christmas Card list.

Mind you I don't think her pension will not be too long in coming and it is very very generous.  Nicola need not worry though, the FM pension is calculated on exactly the same ultra generous basis! 

[garydavidson]

 

Sorry but I have a boring mathematical mind.  You can only stop a party gaining a majority by winning seats from that party.  The SNP did not win a single seat from the Tories in 2015 (they only had one seat up here anyway) all they did was rearrange the anti Tory seats.  This time SNP lost 12 seats to the Tories thus raising their Scottish holding to 13.  Without those 13 seats Theresa would have been drawing her PM pension by now so no doubt Nicola is top of her Christmas Card list.

You could pick out any number of seats in England for the same conclusion. My point was that in the eyes of Labour the SNP are damned if they win all the seats (stops Labour from getting close to the Torries) or damned if they lose seats (Tories cling to power thanks to SNP).

The Labour vote was rather stagnant in Scotland in comparison to England and Wales, that would worry me before I start applauding a vast chunk of votes leaving the SNP. Dugdale is getting off with a dismal display in the face of an SNP collapse. 

[garydavidson]

 

The snp made this election a ref on the ref.....they should now have humility to suck up the result...

They won!

[saintj]

I think the person making this about the Indy ref was Ruth Davidson, since before the council elections that is all she screams about. She goes on about it so much that the SNP don't need to bring it up, and yet, it's the SNP that are obsessed with Independence  She has made the Tories up here a 1 policy parted and does as much. if not more, to keep Scotland a divided country.

The mandate for 1 is already there, it was confirmed after the Scottish elections in 2016 when the SNP received a record number of votes and the Section 30 order was applied for. Playing by Ruth Davidsons rules I guess Aberdeen won the treble last season?

Sturgeon even said we'll put Independence aside for now if we keep Scotland in the single market.

 

You could pick out any number of seats in England for the same conclusion. My point was that in the eyes of Labour the SNP are damned if they win all the seats (stops Labour from getting close to the Torries) or damned if they lose seats (Tories cling to power thanks to SNP).

The Labour vote was rather stagnant in Scotland in comparison to England and Wales, that would worry me before I start applauding a vast chunk of votes leaving the SNP. Dugdale is getting off with a dismal display in the face of an SNP collapse. 

The Tories have never won power based on SNP seats. I think since the World War 2 the Scottish seats have only given Labour a majority twice but have not once swung a majority from Tory to Labour and vice versa.

[Smarmy Arab]

Gary, at no point have I argued that the snp did not 'win'. Saintj,  at no point have I disagreed with your observation that Ruth Davidson has been relentlessly banging on about indy ref 2.  I am arguing that it was Nicola sturgeon and her husband who chose this terrain on which to fight this election.  Two things about the ref in 2014; yes were unlikely to win,  and yes were unlikely to accept the result.  In the period since, the losing side have been agitating for a re-run, ergo they gifted the tories a hand of cards that allows them to run on a single issue, the.......same single issue that happens to be the snp's reason to exist. This has been disastrous for the snp, they have lost hundreds of thousands of votes in under 3 years.

If you both think the snp's strategy has been a success.....knock yourselves out! From a strategic point of view I would love Nicola sturgeon to demand a '2nd independence referendum' every morning and Ruth to squeal her objections...... because I am pretty sure the overwhelming majority are pig sick of this whining.  Same for May, ignore the election result, shout every morning about your mandate for 'hard Brexit' confident in the knowledge that she 'won' the election.  This appears to be exactly how things are progressing because the strategic planning of both May and Sturgeon is all over the map. 

The Art of War famously  states...... never interrupt you opponents when they are making a mistake......so........ Nicola is playing a very clever game here;  keep blaming Labour and Dugdale (aren't they auful those red tories) and onwards to indyref2 there is clearly a ground swell thirsting for freedom!

Good chance of a general election in October.....there is only one party looking forward to that, and it ain't the Scottish Nationalists Party or May's Tories.

[saintj]

Oh I know, I haven't said you did disagree with me about the 1 trick pony  

 

What I'm arguing is that Nicola doesn't keep going on about Indy ref 2 and she did not make this election about another Indy ref. All that has came from Ruth and her wee lackies Dugdale and Rennie. Nicola has repeatedly said, when questioned about it, which is all the time, is that we should have another referendum when the out come of Brexit is clear. I don't see anything wrong with that and anyone with their head screwed on right wouldn't have a problem with that either. She certainly did not campaign on the premise that a vote for the SNP was a vote for another Indy ref, she already had that mandate from 2016 as you know. 

 

What I think what has happened is that in 2015 we saw a massive surge ( a genuine surge not todays ''worse than Thatcher'' Tory surge) for the SNP that no one really expected and come the 2017 GE the unionist side have been more prepared for it and rammed the message home about Indy ref 2 and the floater voters have swung away from the SNP. I think it woulda been interesting if Nic came out and said a vote for the SNP is a vote for Indy but she didn't. Keeping 56 seats was never ever going to happen, think we can all agree that was a huge anomaly. I didn't expect her to lose as my seats as she did either but I see that as the dust settling and Ruth playing the game very well. So no, I don't think the SNP strategy has been a success, but, I don't think it's been a massive failure either. In terms of Indy ref, the Scottish elections will always be important than a UK election unless the SNP actively campaign on that.

 

An October election would be interesting, would you be happy with the SNP propping up a Labour government?

[Smarmy Arab]

Sj, I still find the idea that the snp can blame anyone else for the centrality of the constitutional stalemate on anyone else risible.  NS demanded indy ref 2 In March of 2017...having spend the entire post Brexit period agitating for another ref.....she said at the launch of the snp manifesto in Perth 2 weeks ago, that every vote for the snp 'cements the mandate for indyref2', handing the initiative to her opponents...how can anyone seriously blame anyone other than her for this situation?  Truth is it is always an easy cheer from the home gallery, much easier than having to defend her record in government....Pity those pesky voters won't just behave and follow the flag.

You are correct about 2015 it was an aberration, and never likely to be repeated.  The snp now have to face a challenge from the right and a challenge from the left.  There was a time when this would mean, an opportunity through the middle, not now!  The tories will be hard to shift in the lost seats, and a rejuvenated labour may well take back the votes of the working class tories in the west, now that so many seats are winnable once again.  This could leave the snp back at their 20th century levels of support...irrelevant.

The idea of Labour being propped up by the snp, sounds like a daily express headline. I would rule nothing out.

[Smarmy Arab]

One other thing saintj, whilst I admire your relaxed (maybe relieved?) attitude to the results this week, the central aim of the snp requires mass popular  support.  Does it not concern you that votes have been disappearing at an alarming rate in a short space of time.  Imo NS gambled on Brexit being a game changer, and she has lost that gamble.  Unionist parties now have double the indy party's votes, the snp may well lose the next holyrood election.

[south inch]

I would not bet on the next election being as early as October, the public in my opinion are pissed off with politics and it will be a brave politician who brings about another election so soon.  The Tories will certainly not push for one, if they cannot cobble together an agreement with the DUP they are more likely to stand aside and let Jeremy have a go than call an election.  They will then replace Theresa, as they intend to do anyway, and wait for a suitable opportunity to bring him down although they will hope he will manage that himself.  There is now no doubt that Jeremy can win elections but it remains to be seen if he can hold a Government together, especially a minority one.  Jeremy's best bet will be if the Tories go for Boris, my Auntie Nora could beat him despite having died 15 years ago.

Nicola meantime is showing herself to be out of the same mould as Theresa, a politician who only speaks to people who agree with her in the first place.  If she does not kick Indyref2 into the long grass she is likely to see the SNP squeezed still further by the two big parties with the added handicap next time that there are only about 3 safe SNP seats with it being obvious in most of the others who has the best chance of unseating the sitting MP.

[Smarmy Arab]

You have a point about voter fatigue and the October election, but sometimes events require certain actions, the uk is teetering on the brink of constitutional crisis.....it may even be there already; 

-A minority administration, characterised by rank buffoonery, and a paucity of political heavyweights and the political acumen they bring.

-The prospective support act....THE EFFIN DUP.

-Martin McGuiness resigned over serious allegations of criminality among the DUP to the best of my knowledge this is yet to be revealed far less resolved.

-DUP having disproportionate access to power may be in contravention of GFA.

-Brexit negotiations due to start on Monday, with the 'sitting' Government furiously working to establish is *rse from its elbow.

Constitutionally an election may be necessary. 

I seriously over estimated May and the current Tory Party machinery....whilst seriously underestimating JC.....but the I am content that most people did!  I do not wish to appear crass concerning the horrific evens in Kensington, but these events are symptomatic of the serious issue of inequality in our society, and is bad news politically for a sitting austerity government.  Serious questions must be asked about how such a thing could happen in the 21 century.....the JC bandwagon may well have a vigorous new dimension as a result of the disgraceful cuts and deregulation experienced by local authorities in the last decade.

The country needs statesmanship at the top level to unravel this current mess, and much more besides.  

Interesting times, I have spoken to several people in the last fortnight who have just joined the labour party ...Corbyn's Labour have a unique opportunity. ......the establishment do not trust the tories just now.....but they don't control Labour.....it is a mess, how exciting!  

Edited June 16, 2017 by Smarmy Arab

[Cagey]

May has just dug the biggest hole for herself by promising to rehouse all the tenants still alive within the next 3 weeks.

[saintj]

Correct me if I'm wrong but that's when she applied for Section 30? She was given a mandate to do that and she clearly laid out the terms of it, which to me, were entirely reasonable. Sure, she said that, but she did not make her campaign on basis that a vote for the SNP was a vote for independence. I don't think it's entirely unreasonable to suggest that voting en mass for the SNP, whos core belief is for Scotland to be independent, 'cements the mandate.' Not that it needed it. And to be fair, when you win more seats than all the rest put together, it's hard to argue that she doesn't have a mandate and were it not for the 2015 anomaly it would have been declared a massive victory for the SNP.

 

The thing is though, at UK level, I don't think it should really matter how many MPs the SNP send down there. In 2014 there were only 6. That's the vote that matters most. At a UK level, voting for unionist parties isn't a vote for the union. I'm sure there are more than 1 or 2 yes voters kicking about in the Labour camp. What would concern is if the SNP lost seats en mass in the Scottish elections in 2021. What concerns me even more is that people may vote for Kezia Dugdales Labour on the back of Corbyns work down South. That would be a tragedy. I am not 1 of those hard core SNP members, my vote could easily change come 2021, but it won't ever be for the Tories 

 

I was having doubts about Nics record, and it isn't the greatest, but I liked what she had to say about what the SNP were doing when Andrew Neil interviewed all the leaders.

[Smarmy Arab]

Not 100% sure about the legality of indy ref.....my understanding, and it may incorrect, is that only Westminster can approve referenda, and any 'application' could be subject to legal challenge.  Those who signed the Edinburgh Agreement are bound to 'respect the result'....not respect the result unless something happens....just 'respect the result'.  Calling another less than 3 years after is hardly respecting the result.

All that said, it would be politically problematic to challenge such a request from the Scottish Parliament...to say the least.

Kezia Dugdale has had the toughest job of any labour leader in modern history,  she has been mercilessly bullied and ridiculed since, she took office, as was her predecessor, not scottish politics' finest hour imo.  As i said earlier the current labour manifesto is relatively modest in its objectives, nothing there that is a problem for Kez or anyone else in the party.  I don't see why people in Scotland seeking common cause with like minded people across these islands, the 5th largest economy on the planet, for progressive change is in any way a 'tragedy'.....but therein is perhaps a microcosm of my problem with small nation nationalism.

I agree Sj, the vote that counts is the share of the vote, and pro indy parties do not have a majority.....opinion polls rarely give Yes a lead, and most importantly Yes lost the ref, by 500,000 votes! Or 10% of votes cast. Whilst I fully accept elections and referenda are not precisely comparable it should be pointed out that 10% gap between winner and loser in an election is usually in 'landslide' territory.  But more concerning is the slide in overall votes for the nationalists, last week, with the constitutional issue centre stage, (regardless of who put it there )  The SNP polled 37% of votes cast, or 24% of total electorate.....way, way short of the numbers needed to make this float.  Indy need mass popular support, far more than governments.....losing half a million votes, when it is necessary to gain half a million is a serious situation for the snp, serious indeed.

[Smarmy Arab]

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/16/theresa-may-scared-grenfell-survivors-finished-austerity-cameron-osborne

 

Excellent piece by the latest Corbyn convert.

[sixties saintee]

Definitely dead in the water , especially now its reported that the makers state should not be used on high rises, And yes Smarmy they are all coming round to Jeremy