Summer Transfer Target Thread 2012


t.mcneil99

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ok, bear with me on this one.

A while back I read a post on a Liverpool forum, talking about Moneyball in football and ways to improve it. http://bit.ly/MFZqjt One poster had come up with a way of taking the statistics for a player, and categorizing them visually to determine whether they would fit the club or not. As I have a load of very clever staff over here I got someone to try and adapt this to the Scottish league statistics, and I think we've come up with something workable.

I've explained in the post how it works, and the original article on the Liverpool forum is far more detailed, but the basics are to take a group of statistics and present them in a way the human brain can take in - eg, visually. I am simply grouping players based on their stats to determine what kind of player they are. Effectively, you can take 5 left backs and determine which players are similar, and which are different.

I ran the analysis on Tam Scobbie (he's nothing like Davidson) and Gregory Tade (he's similar to Sheridan, but very different to Sandaza). Will do this again later on other signing targets that i can find the right statistics for.

Article here - http://bit.ly/LtSDdz

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ok, bear with me on this one.

A while back I read a post on a Liverpool forum, talking about Moneyball in football and ways to improve it. http://bit.ly/MFZqjt One poster had come up with a way of taking the statistics for a player, and categorizing them visually to determine whether they would fit the club or not. As I have a load of very clever staff over here I got someone to try and adapt this to the Scottish league statistics, and I think we've come up with something workable.

I've explained in the post how it works, and the original article on the Liverpool forum is far more detailed, but the basics are to take a group of statistics and present them in a way the human brain can take in - eg, visually. I am simply grouping players based on their stats to determine what kind of player they are. Effectively, you can take 5 left backs and determine which players are similar, and which are different.

I ran the analysis on Tam Scobbie (he's nothing like Davidson) and Gregory Tade (he's similar to Sheridan, but very different to Sandaza). Will do this again later on other signing targets that i can find the right statistics for.

Article here - http://bit.ly/LtSDdz

My brain hurts.

What are you trying to do to the beautiful game:shock:

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I could read that a dozen times and still be no nearer understanding wtf it means :cool:

:D

(I think) It makes sense to me. If all the properties of two shapes are the same and one of them is a circle its a fair assumption that the other one is a circle too. Apply that to footballers. If one player has scored 10 goals with his head and 1 goal with his foot and has 10 assists in a single season its a fair assumption he's a target man. If another player has a similar goal ratio then its a fair assumption he's also a target man. The more statistics you collect and compare allow you to show which players are more like others.

The thing it doesn't tell you is how good the guy as as the level of football is a huge factor and that cannot be measured (or can it).

Quite an interesting article, cheers Stevensan.

Edited by Broon
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:D

(I think) It makes sense to me. If all the properties of two shapes are the same and one of them is a circle its a fair assumption that the other one is a circle too. Apply that to footballers. If one player has scored 10 goals with his head and 1 goal with his foot and has 10 assists in a single season its a fair assumption he's a target man. If another player has a similar goal ratio then its a fair assumption he's also a target man. The more statistics you collect and compare allow you to show which players are more like others.

The thing it doesn't tell you is how good the guy as as the level of football is a huge factor and that cannot be measured (or can it).

Quite an interesting article, cheers Stevensan.

Nope....still don't get it :?

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ok, bear with me on this one.

A while back I read a post on a Liverpool forum, talking about Moneyball in football and ways to improve it. http://bit.ly/MFZqjt One poster had come up with a way of taking the statistics for a player, and categorizing them visually to determine whether they would fit the club or not. As I have a load of very clever staff over here I got someone to try and adapt this to the Scottish league statistics, and I think we've come up with something workable.

I've explained in the post how it works, and the original article on the Liverpool forum is far more detailed, but the basics are to take a group of statistics and present them in a way the human brain can take in - eg, visually. I am simply grouping players based on their stats to determine what kind of player they are. Effectively, you can take 5 left backs and determine which players are similar, and which are different.

I ran the analysis on Tam Scobbie (he's nothing like Davidson) and Gregory Tade (he's similar to Sheridan, but very different to Sandaza). Will do this again later on other signing targets that i can find the right statistics for.

Article here - http://bit.ly/LtSDdz

thoroughly enjoying your blog, keep it up. Should ask one of the mods to unstick the fanzine in place of your blog, especially since you link to WAP on your page, and the fanzine has been dead for years.

Edited by Sainteesean
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thoroughly enjoying your blog, keep it up. Should ask one of the mods to unstick the fanzine in place of your blog, especially since you link to WAP on your page, and the fanzine has been dead for years.

What was the fanzine???? Sounds like one of those dodgy new gems advertised on tele selling channels.

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I am simply grouping players based on their stats to determine what kind of player they are.

Interesting - what analysis did you use?

Personally, I am very sceptical about the moneyball approach (I havent seen the film but i think i understand the principles) for team games like football - its so very different to sports like baseball or cricket where it is much easier to establish an individual player's performance.

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:D

(I think) It makes sense to me. If all the properties of two shapes are the same and one of them is a circle its a fair assumption that the other one is a circle too. Apply that to footballers. If one player has scored 10 goals with his head and 1 goal with his foot and has 10 assists in a single season its a fair assumption he's a target man. If another player has a similar goal ratio then its a fair assumption he's also a target man. The more statistics you collect and compare allow you to show which players are more like others.

The thing it doesn't tell you is how good the guy as as the level of football is a huge factor and that cannot be measured (or can it).

Quite an interesting article, cheers Stevensan.

Your spot on Broon. It doesn't say how good they are - there is far too many variable factors which can affect a player. That's what the original poster on the Liverpool forum concluded - how to you explain in stats why Ba stopped scoring when Newcastle signed Cisse? However, you can group players as like/like to determine whether the player will match what you need. EG, if we're looking for a replacement for Sandaza, from this analysis of Tade and Hasselbaink they would be terrible signings.

It's not perfect, but i'm interested in whether it has any merit or not. The examples used on the Liverpool forum we're very close to how the players performed, and when I first ran it I was amazed at how it grouped players (especially the Wallace/Grainger one, as it explained why Hearts wanted Grainger when Saints really didn't.)

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Please no Hasslebank or Tade for me they didn’t exactly set the heather alight last season for their club.

I thought he played rather well last season when I saw him, scored a few as well. Amazing how different people see different players.

Could see him fitting in really well at Perth

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Guess it is from this on the official site -

"The 25 year old has been with Ross County and played a vital role in the Staggies’ remarkable First Division championship success but the former Livingston man, who counts Dave Mackay and Murray Davidson as former team mates, has pledged himself to Saints for next season."

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